Squamish Real Estate Market Winter Review & Spring Forecast
Where do you sit on the spectrum of real estate sentiment? Are you hell bent that the market is going to crash or pretty certain all signs are pointing to positive momentum in the market over the next year?
Everybody seems to have an opinion, but are the opinions backed by data or filtered through our perceptions and positions?
Nobody has a crystal ball but by looking at stats and paying attention to micro and macro factors effecting the economy and subsequently the real estate market, we can take a pretty educated guess as to what the market will do in the next 6-12 months. Based on this information you can decide if now is the time to buy, or sit on the sidelines and ride out whatever is ‘happening’ to the current market.
First, we’ll look at the winter stats and then I will give you my anecdotal interpretation as a professional real estate agent (backed by some media cred). Then I’ll leave the ball in your court to determine if now is the time to flex your real estate muscle (and of course if you do so I am here to help).
Winter 2018/19 Squamish Real Estate Stats
When assessing historic real estate data to make future predictions, there are a couple of metrics we like to look at.
First of all, the number of sales is a great indicator of how active the market is. We can see from the stats, December 2018 had way fewer sales then in subsequent years (December was one of the slowest real estate months in a loooong time), properties stayed on the market longer (DOM=Days on Market), there were fewer listings then in previous years and the MLS average benchmark price was slightly under the previous year. Properties which did sell in December sold for 95% of the initial list price (this is the percentage of original price ratio).
| December | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
| # of sales | 14 | 43 | 42 | 42 |
| Av DOM | 64 | 30 | 35 | 32 |
| # new listings | 18 | 26 | 25 | 15 |
| MLS HP Price | $750.3K | $768.5K | $637.2K | $493.5K |
| Sales/ Listing | .95 | .98 | .95 | .99 |
January wasn’t much different. Although sales were up from January 2018 this was mainly because inventory was extremely low in January 2018. The average home that sold in January was on the market for 60 days and there were 70 new listings that came on the market. As with December the average sale price was slightly below January 2018 and properties that sold in January did so at 98% of the listing price.
| January | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
| # of sales | 24 | 22 | 35 | 28 |
| Av DOM | 60 | 38 | 64 | 27 |
| # new listings | 70 | 80 | 79 | 69 |
| Av sale price | $758.6K | $768.2K | $642.6K | $505.9K |
| Sales/ Listing | .98 | .98 | .95 | .99 |
As expected, sales started to pick up in February. This is a normal trend as we head into spring though the number of sales were still below the years prior. Days on the market still hovered around two months (much higher than previous years), while the number of new listings was a healthy 75. The average sale price remained consistent with months prior, only slightly below 2018 but well above 2017, and the average sale in February sold 96.6 percent of the list price.
| February | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
| # of sales | 39 | 56 | 44 | 64 |
| Av DOM | 64 | 12 | 24 | 16 |
| # new listings | 75 | 86 | 71 | 92 |
| Av sale price | $757.3 | $767.2 | $636.2 | $505.6 |
| Sales/ Listing | 96.6 | 99.3 | 97.9 | 99.7 |
Spring Real Estate Predictions
It’s quite apparent that heading into Spring we will likely see subdued spring market conditions compared to previous years, but the market is far from ‘tanking’. In my opinion this poses an excellent time for buyers. With some relief when it comes to price and less activity then the last few years (but still a healthy inventory), it’s anticipated there will be lots of great, well-priced properties on the market this Spring.
But what do the experts have to say about the real estate market?
This year we will likely see prices stabalize, with our normal spring uptick of activity with many predicting 2020 will be when the market really starts to move again. The BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) is expecting a sales increase of 2 percent for 2019 increasing to 6.9 percent for 2020, these numbers are showing a market that is definitely favouring buyers in 2019.
The big factors contributing to the softening market conditions are rising interest rates and the mortgage stress test passed in early 2018. TD Senior Rishi Sondhu expects the market to be slow for the first half of 2019 while picking up pace in the last two quarters, “barring a shock to household incomes or employment, we…suggest that an improvement in market conditions by mid-year remains a reasonable bet,” he writes in his most recent analysis.
There is some positive news when it comes to interest rates too. The Bank of Canada just dropped its five-year fixed mortgage from 3.89 percent to 3.74 percent with other banks following suit. This has definitely caused a sense of relief when it comes to interest rates which is great for home-owners. New predictions are now calling for a much more modest rise over the next few years.
With the Federal Government announcing a new first-time home buyers program aimed at assisting new home buyers with mortgage payments, this could see some spike in demand when the program comes into effect, likely September 2019 (read more here).
Should you buy a home this year?
I always tell clients the best time to buy a home is when it aligns with your bigger life goals and aspirations. Of course it’s important to make smart decisions based on the real estate market, but it’s more important to ensure you have the finances available to purchase a home, an income that can support your mortgage payments, and that it’s an all around lifestyle decision that meets your needs right now.
If you are an investor buying for short-term market appreciation (to make a quick buck), then no, now is not a great time to buy. If you’re looking to buy a home which will be your primary residence and are planning on living in it for a few years minimum then yes, it’s a great time to buy if it suits your lifestyle and affordability right now. It may also be a great time to buy if you’re an investor looking to purchase a rental property as vacancy rates are still very low in Squamish.
Don’t waste any more energy then necessary trying to time the market and predict something that is unpredictable. If the timing is right for you then it’s a great time, if not, reassess down the road, use the market conditions to help make an informed decision but don’t let it solely dictate your decision to purchase or not.
Still unsure?
Unsure if Squamish is the right place for you to buy? Schedule a tour and learn more about the local lifestyle and real estate market while previewing the different neighbourhoods and accessing some local wisdom.
Unsure if now is the right time? Contact us and let’s talk further. If we can’t answer all of your questions we have an amazing team of professionals who will be able to assist you.
- DUPLEX FOR SALE: 38035 Sixth Avenue & 38033 Seventh Avenue - December 5, 2019
- Squamish Real Estate Stats | March 2019 - April 14, 2019
- Buying Pre-Sale or Re-Sale | Weighing up the Pros and Cons - April 14, 2019